Much of the language used to describe monetary policy, such as “steering the economy to a soft landing” or “a touch on the brakes”, makes it sound like a precise science. Nothing could be further from the truth. The link between interest rates and inflation is uncertain. And there are long, variable lags before policy changes have any effect on the economy. Hence the analogy that likens the conduct of monetary policy to driving a car with a blackened windscreen, a cracked rear-view mirror and a faulty steering wheel.
    Given all these disadvantages, central bankers seem to have had much to boast about of late. Average inflation in the big seven industrial economies fell to a mere 2.3% last year, close to its lowest level in 30 years, before rising slightly to 2.5% this July. This is a long way below the double-digit rates which many countries experienced in the 1970s and early 1980s.
    It is also less than most forecasters had predicted. In late 1994 the panel of economists which the Economist polls each month said that America’s inflation rate would average 3. 5% in 1995. In fact, it fell to 2.6% in August, and expected to average only about 3% for the year as a whole. In Britain and Japan inflation is running half a percentage point below the rate predicted at the end of last year. This is no flash in the pan; over the past couple of years, inflation has been consistently lower than expected in Britain and America.
    Economists have been particularly surprised by favorable inflation figures in Britain and the United States, since conventional measures suggest that both economies, and especially America’s, have little productive slack. America’s capacity utilization, for example, hit historically high levels earlier this year, and its jobless rate (5.6% in August) has fallen below most estimates of the natural rate of unemployment-the rate below which inflation has taken off in the past.
    Why has inflation proved so mild? The most thrilling explanation is, unfortunately, a little defective. Some economists argue that powerful structural changes in the world have up-ended the old economic models that were based upon the historical link between growth and inflation.

Directions:
    You are supposed to write for the Postgraduates’ Association a notice to recruit volunteers for an international conference on globalization. The notice should include the basic qualifications for applicants and other information which you think is relevant.
    You should write about 100 words on the ANSWER SHEET.
    Do not sign your own name at the end of the notice. Use “Postgraduates’ Association” instead.

Directions:
    Write an essay of 160-200 words based on the following drawing. In your essay, you should
    (1) describe the drawing briefly,
    (2) explain its intended meaning, and then
    (3) support your view with an example/examples.
    You should write neatly on  the ANSWER SHEET.

    The idea that some groups of people may be more intelligent than others is one of those hypotheses that dare not speak its name. But Gregory Cochran is (l) ______ to say it anyway. He is that (2) ______ bird, a scientist who works independently (3) ______ any institution. He helped popularize the idea that some diseases not (4) ______ thought to have a bacterial cause were actually infections, which aroused much controversy when it was first suggested.
    (5) ______ he, however, might tremble at the (6) ______ of what he is about to do. Together with another two scientists, he is publishing a paper which not only (7) ______ that one group of humanity is more intelligent than the others, but explains the process that has brought this about. The group in (8) ______ are a particular people originated from central Europe. The process is natural selection.
    This group generally do well in IQ tests, (9) ______ 12-15 points above the (10) ______ value of 100, and have contributed (11) ______ to the intellectual and cultural life of the West, as the (12) ______ of their elites, including several world-renowned scientists, (13) ______. They also suffer more often than most people from a number of nasty genetic diseases, such as breast cancer. These facts, (14) ______, have previously been thought unrelated. The former has been (15) ______ to social effects, such as a strong tradition of (16) ______ education. The latter was seen as a (an) (17) ______ of genetic isolation. Dr. Cochran suggests that the intelligence and diseases are intimately (18) ______. His argument is that the unusual history of these people has (19) ______ them to unique evolutionary pressures that have resulted in this (20) ______ state of affairs.

　　材料二：广东某知名企业在创业之初，投资地产，走专业化经营发展道路。随着实力不断提升，该企业步入成熟期，仍以地产为核心主业，逐步向文化旅游、日用消费品、体育产业、农业、乳业、畜牧业等领域扩展，走上了多元化经营发展道路。至2014年6月，该企业已发展成为一个以地产为核心竞争力的综合性企业集团，总资产达4217亿元。